What if Hillary Clinton, feeling that the Democratic Party has been taken over by the far left, decides to form a new political party in her run for President?I took a look at that scenario and was surprised to see my findings.The approach used to come up with the findings is far from scientific and could not get anymore low budget, but there is some reasonable rationale to the approach.

I started out with the simple premise that three major candidates and one minor candidate will be on the ballot in November – Obama, Clinton, McCain, Nader.With Obama and Nader sharing the far left, Clinton and McCain sharing the moderates, and the conservatives voting for McCain, since they have no horse in the race, the vote would be heavily split and winning a state’s electoral vote will not require a majority.

The next premise was that strong red states will continue to go with the Republicans and John McCain.The blue states were a different matter.In those states I looked at either the primary results or the polls where primaries have not as yet been held.When looking at the blue states, only a few battle ground states appeared and they will be discussed later.

538 electoral votes are at play and the Electoral College is not based on proportional votes and there are no super electors.270 votes are needed to win the Presidency.The analysis of the primary results, polls, and voting history provided the following:

McCain wins Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming for a total of 191 electoral votes.

Obama wins Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin for a total of 131 electoral votes.

Clinton wins Arkansas, California, Iowa, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania for 172 electoral votes.

Two states are very hard to figure do to the split votes and they are Florida and Michigan.After the Democratic Party primary debacle it is anyone’s guess as to how these states will go especially with four candidates on the ballot.Even so they represent 44 electoral votes, less than what any of the candidates will need to clinch.Despite some disagreement with how a state might fall, there seems to be no mix to give anyone candidate 270 electoral votes.Now what?It goes to the House of Representatives.The difference here is that the House votes by state and each state has but one vote – more infighting.

The following is an excerpt from the National Archives and records Administration web site: If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote. The Senate would elect the Vice President from the 2 Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes. Each Senator would cast one vote for Vice President. If the House of Representatives fails to elect a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice-President Elect serves as acting President until the deadlock is resolved in the House.http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/faq.html#270

If the respective state delegations follow the way their state fell, with no candidate getting a majority, then McCain might garner 22 votes including Florida; Clinton 9 votes; and Obama 19 votes including Michigan.I believe that the decisions, within each state delegation, are not readily apparent and anything could happen.Even though Senator Clinton would have the fewest states, she could win as a long shot.

With a continuing shift of the Democratic party to the far left and the growing conservative wing of the Republican Party having a controlling impact in that party, is a third party developing right before us?This election the Republican Party only has a chance because it is nominating a candidate who is conservative on matters of security and economics, but liberal on social issues – John McCain.The Republicans are counting on cross over from disaffected Democrats and independents who have not gone to “far liberal land”.Would John McCain be the Republican nominee if scores of independents and Democrats had not crossed over in numerous primaries?While the Democrats offer two candidates who appear very liberal, the move to far liberal was more of a survival need for Hillary Clinton to be able to obtain the Democratic Party Presidential Candidate endorsement.There was no need for Barack Obama to move far left, as he was and is already there.

It is clear that both parties are moving farther to their respective corners, left and right, leaving a void in search of a party ideology. The ongoing compound fracture occurring in the Democratic Party does not represent just a candidate preference difference.It is heavily rooted in a difference in ideology.This possibly un-repairable fracture has been coming for years as the far left forces like MoveOn.Org and George Soros have become the new party machinery – the king makers.Will Senator Clinton be motivated to start a third party, since she appears to now be unwanted by the new and incredibly powerful far left machine at work in the Democratic Party?Will the gravitas of a former President, Bill Clinton, behind her help make that move a successful one?

Two scenarios could exist.Clinton gets the nomination and Obama splits and starts his own far left party – not likely.Obama gets the nomination, Florida and Michigan remain disenfranchised, and the Clinton's split and start their own moderate democratic party – more possible.It is likely George Soros and company will successfully complete the take over of the Democratic Party with an Obama nomination.As it looks now, the new far left well funded machine will prevail and Obama will get the nod.This Party will then break apart.

If I was Hillary Clinton, and did not receive the nomination of my party, I would begin the exploration of getting on the ballot in as many states as possible as a new party – at the minimum it would put pressure on the Democratic Party machinery to allow her a fair shot.I would then start a new party to the right of the Democratic Party and slightly overlapping into the left of the Republican Party.The Bull Moose Party (real name The Progressive Party) started this way in 1912.Whether the new major party could win this November is debatable, but it could be the precursor of a powerful party sponsoring Congressional candidates in 2010.The Clinton organization could also make use of its currently in place formidable state organizations to build a solid party for state level campaigns.Would the Southern Democrats join up?They have been the lost tribe for years?I can tell you that today’s Democratic Party is not the Democratic Party of my father – a hardworking bricklayer out of Local 1 of the Bricklayer’s union in New York.Today’s Democratic Party has moved too far left for a large number of existing and former Party members to be comfortable with it, and who are further uncomfortable in simply moving to the Republican Party.The move of the Republican Party to the right, more of a nudge actually, has also disenfranchised many moderate Republicans, who do not want to jump to the far left Democratic Party.

There is one tiny party out there that is fairly new – The Moderate Party.Its platform aligns well with the real Clinton ideology, not her morphed ideology to appeal to the far left of the Democratic Party.Otherwise, we might see the “Middle Class Party”.How is that for a catchy name?